DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/24 11:04
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday
Corn futures are 14 to 15 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
5 to 10 cents lower; wheat futures are 17 to 30 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P down 895 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 25 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies
are mixed with crude down .10 and natural gas up .7. Livestock trade is mostly
lower with feeder cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 19.50.
Corn futures are 14 to 15 cents lower at midday with rangebound action
continuing. The U.S. saw a slightly better-than-expected planting pace last
week and China finally approved Brazil corn for import; but there was little
other fresh bullish news with negative outside-market spillover returning. The
daily export wire has been quiet, while basis shows some signs of life again in
spots. The ethanol margins look to remain rangebound near term with Memorial
Day demand likely to pull stocks down a bit and potential RVP waivers may limit
demand at some point. The second crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch
while U.S. weather continues to keep moisture in much of the Corn Belt with
cooler weather until midweek. Weekly crop progress showed good gains in
planting with corn 72% complete versus 79% on average, with 39% emerged versus
51% on average. Condition reports may start next week. On the July contract
chart, we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $7.92 with the lower
Bollinger Band at $7.67 as support.
Soybean futures are 5 to 10 cents lower with firmer spread action as trade
works to find support after fading from the highs on Monday with little fresh
news otherwise and growing spillover from outside markets. Meal is $1.50 to
$2.50 higher and oil is 25 to 35 points higher with meal working back from
early weakness after the rally slowed Monday. South America is moving toward
post-harvest footing at this point. Planting in the U.S. will remain sluggish
with the expected moisture this week; the cool down will slow emergence until
the second half of the week. The weekly Crop Progress report showed soybeans
50% planted versus 55% on average; 21% emerged versus 26% on average. On the
July soybean chart, we are well above the 20-day moving average at $16.53 with
the upper Bollinger band at $17.23 the next round up.
Wheat futures are 17 to 30 cents lower with spring wheat holding up the best
on planting pace with little change to Northern Hemisphere weather or political
situation. The U.S. dollar is fading back off the highs as well to add a little
support if selling continues. Warmer weather is expected to return later this
week to push maturity again. Wheat heading is 63% versus 65% on average, and
conditions slightly improved at 28% good to excellent; 40% poor to very poor,
down 1%. Spring wheat planting was 49% complete versus 83% on average; 29%
emerged versus 50% on average. KC wheat is back to a 33-cent discount to
Minneapolis in wider action, and at an 80-cent premium to Chicago, narrowing a
bit. The KC July chart has resistance at the Upper Bollinger Band at $13.76,
with the 20-day moving average well below the market at $12.15.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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