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DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/16 11:30
Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Mixed
Corn futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is
firmer with the S&P 60 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points lower.
The interest rate products are mixed. Energy trade is mixed with crude 2.70
lower and natural gas .11 higher. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious
metals are mixed with gold down 33.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade fading back toward
the lows on limited U.S. weather concerns. Middle East concerns are cooling for
now, so energies are backing off while the stock market rebounds. Ethanol
margins should hold the range with softer corn and unleaded action into midday.
Warmer weather is expected for most through midweek with good short-term rain
coverage through the beginning of this week. Weekly crop progress is expected
to show slightly improved conditions with development in line with the 5-year
average. Weekly export inspections staying strong at 1.673 million metric tons
(mmt), keeping us at 128% of last year's pace. Basis continues to hold the
recent range. On the July chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.45 1/2 is
resistance with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.27 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are narrowly mixed as we fade from the overnight highs and
work to consolidate Friday's post-biodiesel-announcement gains with oil
continuing to lead the product complex. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 lower and oil is
3.00 to 4.00 higher. Biodiesel targets held at 3.35 billion gallons this year
but go to 5.65 billion next year, and 5.86 billion the following year. Planting
should be pretty well wrapped up with rains to boost emergence for many. Weekly
crop progress is likely to show steady to slightly better conditions and
emergence near the 5-year average with planting wrapped up except for
double-crop acres. Basis should stabilize after most processors rolled to
November last week before the biodiesel announcement. Weekly export inspections
were soft at 215,803 metric tons (mt) with year-to-date pace at 111%. On the
July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $10.52, which we pushed
through Friday, with the recent high at $10.82 as resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower with trade testing support early; there
is harvest pressure and calmer outside market action with the cheaper dollar
again adding support. The hard red wheat areas should start to see harvest move
ahead as warmer temps aid maturity and readiness. Weekly crop progress is
expected to show us just behind the 5-year average with steady conditions
otherwise. Spring wheat should continue to catch up as we warm back up with
good rain potential in the short term, which should boost conditions on the
weekly report with average development pace holding. MATIF wheat is weaker with
the euro firming ahead of harvest. Weekly export inspections were OK at 388,752
mt with year-to-date pace at 83% a week and half into the new-crop year. On the
KC July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $5.33, which we tested
this morning, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $5.50 the next round up.
**
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**
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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