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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/25 11:54

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Wheat is the leader at midday with higher trade across the board.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down. The 
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 40 higher. Energies are 
mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer 
with gold up 7.50.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to find 
buying after the positive finish yesterday. Fieldwork should expand in some 
areas this week with drier pockets to the east and south with warmer temps 
expected to wait until next week, with delays expected to persist in 
Iowa/Minnesota area. The second-crop areas of Brazil look to remain on the dry 
side in the near term as well, with some potential improvement in the extended 
forecast as we get deeper in their growing season. Weekly ethanol production 
was down 20,000 barrels a day as spring maintenance continues with stocks up 
357,000 barrels. The export wire has been quiet in recent days. On the July 
chart we are just above the 20-day at $3.92 which becomes support, with the 
upper bolliger band at $4.02 resistance.


   Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher at midday with stronger meal values 
boosting trade during the day session. Meal is $5 to $6 higher and oil is 15 to 
25 points lower, with meal rallying on dock damage in Argentina. The recent 
pattern in South America should remain intact near term allowing for greater 
progress in Brazil harvesting, with the stronger dollar and cheaper real 
encouraging sales and export business, with nothing for the U.S. on the daily 
wire again today. Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres, with the 
weather challenges rolling acres over from wheat and corn. On the July 
contract, trade has slipped below the 50-day at $10.51, with the 100-day at 
$10.25 as the next level of support.


   Wheat trade is 6 to 12 cents higher with weather concerns pushing trade 
despite the stronger dollar. Warmer conditions coming should help the crop 
maturity catch up with the cool recent temps putting the crop behind, while 
moisture mostly remains short. Spring wheat-growing areas look more open but 
have plenty of ground to cover. The Black Sea area will continue to dominate 
export trade with spring weather not triggering any major excitement thus far. 
Export offers out of the Black Sea area were $198 a ton on the tenders today. 
On the July Kansas City contract support is the 50-day at $5.15 support after 
we moved through it this morning, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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