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DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/25 11:54
All Grains Higher at Midday
Wheat is the leader at midday with higher trade across the board.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
General Comments
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures down. The
interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 40 higher. Energies are
mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer
with gold up 7.50.
CORN
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to find
buying after the positive finish yesterday. Fieldwork should expand in some
areas this week with drier pockets to the east and south with warmer temps
expected to wait until next week, with delays expected to persist in
Iowa/Minnesota area. The second-crop areas of Brazil look to remain on the dry
side in the near term as well, with some potential improvement in the extended
forecast as we get deeper in their growing season. Weekly ethanol production
was down 20,000 barrels a day as spring maintenance continues with stocks up
357,000 barrels. The export wire has been quiet in recent days. On the July
chart we are just above the 20-day at $3.92 which becomes support, with the
upper bolliger band at $4.02 resistance.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher at midday with stronger meal values
boosting trade during the day session. Meal is $5 to $6 higher and oil is 15 to
25 points lower, with meal rallying on dock damage in Argentina. The recent
pattern in South America should remain intact near term allowing for greater
progress in Brazil harvesting, with the stronger dollar and cheaper real
encouraging sales and export business, with nothing for the U.S. on the daily
wire again today. Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres, with the
weather challenges rolling acres over from wheat and corn. On the July
contract, trade has slipped below the 50-day at $10.51, with the 100-day at
$10.25 as the next level of support.
WHEAT
Wheat trade is 6 to 12 cents higher with weather concerns pushing trade
despite the stronger dollar. Warmer conditions coming should help the crop
maturity catch up with the cool recent temps putting the crop behind, while
moisture mostly remains short. Spring wheat-growing areas look more open but
have plenty of ground to cover. The Black Sea area will continue to dominate
export trade with spring weather not triggering any major excitement thus far.
Export offers out of the Black Sea area were $198 a ton on the tenders today.
On the July Kansas City contract support is the 50-day at $5.15 support after
we moved through it this morning, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at
$5.45.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
(BAS)
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